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How did the Phillips curve change in the long run?

The short-term Phillips Curve looked like a normal Phillips Curve but shifted in the long run as expectations changed. In the long run, only a single rate of unemployment (the NAIRU or "natural" rate) was consistent with a stable inflation rate.

What causes the Phillips curve to shift?

Economists have concluded that two factors cause the Phillips curve to shift. The first is supply shocks, like the mid-1970s oil crisis, which first brought stagflation into our vocabulary. The second is changes in people’s expectations about inflation.

What is the long-run Phillips curve?

In the diagram, the long-run Phillips curve is the vertical red line. The NAIRU theory says that when unemployment is at the rate defined by this line, inflation will be stable. However, in the short-run policymakers will face an inflation-unemployment rate trade-off marked by the "Initial Short-Run Phillips Curve" in the graph.

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